findyourbetter: The report pre-election jobs October 2012 was rigged

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Home The October 2012 Pre-Election Jobs Report Was Faked Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2013 22:29 -0500

Barack ObamaBLSBureau of Labor StatisticsCensus BureauFederal ReserveGeneral ElectricHFTPresident ObamarecoveryRick SantelliUnemployment

On Friday October 5, 2012, the BLS released what was arguably the most important report of Obama's first term: the final jobs number, and unemployment rate before the November 2012 presidential election. As so many predicted, it "plunged" from 8.1% to 7.8% allowing the president to conduct countless teleprompted speeches praising the success of his economic recovery. It also served as the basis for the infamous Jack Welch tweet: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers" and prompted the pro-Obama media to quickly brand all those who questioned it as conspiracy theorists. The Atlantic did perhaps the most exemplary job in its task to discredit the "random anonymous cranks" who challenged the bullshit spewed by the administration's manipulative economic data reporting apparatus. From The Atlantic's Unemployment Plummets To 7.8%.

The unemployment rate plunged to 7.8 percent in September, its lowest level since Barack Obama took office in 2009. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics made big revisions to data from previous months, showing huge increases in the number of jobs being created over the last three months. Total employment from the "household survey" also showed an increase of 873,000 jobs last month, the biggest one-month jump since June of 1983.

Not only has the unemployment rate gone down, but the report also undercut one of the key criticisms of previous drops in the number—that it was because the "participation rate" went down. That rate has actually gone back up, which means unemployment is down because people are actually getting work, not because they've stopped looking. Public sector jobs also went up, as did the average number of hours worked per week.

This report looks so good for President Obama that conspiracy theorists are already alleging that the fix is in. And not just random anonymous cranks, but supposedly serious business people, like former General Electric CEO Jack Welch.

Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers
— Jack Welch (@jack_welch) October 5, 2012

He wasn't alone:

No, there's nothing at all curious about the last jobs report diving to 7.8% unemployment before the election.
— Keith Urbahn (@keithurbahn) October 5, 2012
Total data manipulation. Such a farce
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2012

Rick Santelli of CNBC, noting that the rate has dropped below the magical number of 8 percent, said, "You can let America decide how they got there." When one side is convinced that something smells rotten, you know it's good news for the other guy.

As we noted his comment at the time...

"the current trend of these [jobs] numbers is so different from the current trend of any other numbers. If you were looking for conspiracies (and I'm not), you only need to change a certain number."

Of course, who cares if the "conspiracy theories" were substantiated by actual data. Such as the following from the same day:

An Odd Arima-X-12 Statistical Aberration?

Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:
Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)
-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much Arima-X-12?

Or this also from the same day:

Reason For Today's Unemployment Rate Plunge: Part-Time Jobs For Economic Reasons Surge Most Since QE1 Announcement

We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.

So putting it all together, what does this mean for the true state of the US economy? Recall back in September one of our Charts of the Day was the number of Unemployed and Underemployed for the month of August, which was 25.8 million. Readers may be surprised to learn that when putting it all together, in September this number increased to 26.2 million.

Or this also from the same day:

The Strangest Number In Today's Jobs Number

While we already presented the explanation for the dramatic drop in today's unemployment report (almost entirely driven by the surge in part-time jobs for economic reasons, hardly a thing to be proud of as more and more full time jobs, especially those on Wall Street, are a thing of the past, while the transition to a part-time worker society has been documented extensively in the past here), there is another number that is by far the most perplexing in today's NFP dataset: that showing the employment of workers in the 20-24 year age category (both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted). See if you can spot the outlier in the chart below.

And many more other such reports posted on this site on the same day, alleging fabrication which as it turns out courtesy of the just released stunning disclosure by the Post, were absolutely spot on since the number was, you guessed it, manipulated.

The Post's John Crudele reveals the details on a data manipulation scandal, which we exposed back in October 2012, but this time with the actual "dirty details" that has the potential to be so big, Obama will need to start another YouTube-fabricated, false flag war just to distract from this latest scandal.

From The Post's "Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report"

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.

The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.

And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.

And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.

“He’s not the only one,” said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.

The Census employee caught faking the results is Julius Buckmon, according to confidential Census documents obtained by The Post. Buckmon told me in an interview this past weekend that he was told to make up information by higher-ups at Census.

Ironically, it was Labor’s demanding standards that left the door open to manipulation.

Labor requires Census to achieve a 90 percent success rate on its interviews — meaning it needed to reach 9 out of 10 households targeted and report back on their jobs status.

Census currently has six regions from which surveys are conducted. The New York and Philadelphia regions, I’m told, had been coming up short of the 90 percent.

Philadelphia filled the gap with fake interviews.

“It was a phone conversation — I forget the exact words — but it was, ‘Go ahead and fabricate it’ to make it what it was,” Buckmon told me.

Census, under contract from the Labor Department, conducts the household survey used to tabulate the unemployment rate.

Interviews with some 60,000 household go into each month’s jobless number, which currently stands at 7.3 percent. Since this is considered a scientific poll, each one of the households interviewed represents 5,000 homes in the US.

Buckmon, it turns out, was a very ambitious employee. He conducted three times as many household interviews as his peers, my source said.

By making up survey results — and, essentially, creating people out of thin air and giving them jobs — Buckmon’s actions could have lowered the jobless rate.

Buckmon said he filled out surveys for people he couldn’t reach by phone or who didn’t answer their doors.

But, Buckmon says, he was never told how to answer the questions about whether these nonexistent people were employed or not, looking for work, or have given up.

But people who know how the survey works say that simply by creating people and filling out surveys in their name would boost the number of folks reported as employed.

Census never publicly disclosed the falsification. Nor did it inform Labor that its data was tainted.

“Yes, absolutely they should have told us,” said a Labor spokesman. “It would be normal procedure to notify us if there is a problem with data collection.”

* * *

During the 2010 Census report — an enormous and costly survey of the entire country that goes on for a full year — I suspected (and wrote in a number of columns) that Census was inexplicably hiring and firing temporary workers.

I suspected that this turnover of employees was being done purposely to boost the number of new jobs being report each month. (The Labor Department does not use the Census Bureau for its other monthly survey of new jobs — commonly referred to as the Establishment Survey.)

Last week I offered to give all the information I have, including names, dates and charges to Labor’s inspector general.

I’m waiting to hear back from Labor.

I hope the next stop will be Congress, since manipulation of data like this not only gives voters the wrong impression of the economy but also leads lawmakers, the Federal Reserve and companies to make uninformed decisions.

Don't hold your breath: the reason is that this particular instance manipulation is merely the tip of the iceberg - since virtually all data out of the BLS is manipulated and fabricated, as we report each and every month, the last thing the legislative and certainly the executive want is to offer the general public a glimpse of just how deep the rabbit hole goes. Because it goes very, very deep.

One can only hope this forces at least some more people to wake up about the sad farce this once great nation has devolved to in its quest to destroy the middle class.

The only real good news, as noted above, is that yet another conspiracy theory is forever cast into the void, and going forward the only thing the random, but manipulated, number generator out of the Bureau Of Lies And Subterfuge will be good for, is to prod the just as pathetic HFT algos into a buying frenzy when month after month the economy is painted with rosy brushes, even as millions forever drop out of the labor force, never to return.

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Barry needs to go to a FEMA Camp....now

I AM SHOCKED! SHOCKED I TELL YOU!!!

I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue!

It's gonna get worse before it gets better. Of that we can be sure.

If you like your job numbers, you can keep.......oh never mind.

"Philadelphia filled the gap with fake interviews"

Philadelphia, huh? Same place that entire voting precincts went 100% (OR MORE!) for Obama in 2012? Same place they threw out all non-Democratic polling observers ON ELECTION DAY before the GOP got them back in (hours later) by emergency injunction? Same place I have been talking about here for YEARS as the "New Chicago" when it comes to corruption?

Color me fucking shocked.

If this lying-ass motherfucking cocksucking son of a bitch Manchurian Candidate president makes it to the end of his 2nd term and exits in the normal fashion, we all deserve the 2x4 that's currently being shoved up our asses.

"If you like your son of a bitch president, you can keep your son of a bitch president."

And yeah, you can quote me on that.

UH OH Mr. investigative journo-man is willing to release his information to Congress, and to what end? More kabuki congressional hearings? Yeah, because those were sooooo effective in rooting out corruption from Benghazi, IRS targetting, NSA targetting, Fast n furious, ad naseum...

Better get 60 mins on this.

Gimmee a sec...

*puts on shocked face*

I am SHOCKED!!

Did anyone else notice that Jack Welch owns the Obama pro-media? Jesus, people. Please, ZH, don't succumb to WWF antics.

World Wildlife Federation?

Welch, owner of the "liberal media." "Jamie Dimon is a great CEO" http://www.nbcnews.com/video/cnbc/53346236#53346236

It is all a lie. All of it.

I don't get it, are you saying Tyler was claiming Welch is a liberal?

It's much more complicated than that. Welch goes on his own TV shows to debate whether the job numbers are real while his paid employees tell him and the public they are. Think about that for a second. Divide. Conquer. ZH is putting him out there as a voice of reason. Our entire political system is based on this. False debate. Control the message. Fake in-fighting among the Teams. Is Hulk or the Destroyer going to win this round?

To be fair Tyler is quoting this story from....the nypost lol

zh QC slipping tonight

From the year end 2012 ZH Greatest Hits:

"The 13th most popular post reminds us just what the biggest media circus for public consumption of 2012 was: the presidential election, where a key part of assuring the success of the incumbent was the battery of ridiculously strong economic reports, subsequently all revised far lower, in the days and weeks leading to the November election. In "Data Massaging Continues: Initial Claims Tumble To 339K Lowest Since 2008, Far Below Lowest Expectation" the October headlines were there merely to spoon-feed the masses; one look beneath the headlines, however, proved that as in every other banana republic, the US was no better off. However, all is fair in pre-election campaigns and data fudging, and the BLS would certainly not be held accountable."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-30/2012-greatest-hits-presenting-m...

Just like the World Wrestling Federation it's completelly fake and for entertainment purposes only.

The Corzining/Rehypothicating of Employment figures will continue until morale improves.

In a righteous society, election results that were based on false information would be overturned.

But, of course, that would be in a righteous society.

Obama can simply apologize and all is well. Isn't that the formula?

I'm already accepting his fake apology.

Like this? :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6oeSFAIKaX4

Fake. Just like the birth certificate

That's like saying Yellen's hair is ugly shade of grey.

The birth certificate is fake? Everything about our political system is fake!

Everything that our entire civilization is built on is fake!!

Nevermind, It's way more safe to focus on little shit...

Not alot, but still FREE BITCOINS: http://freebitco.in/?r=25727

If you don't like your jobs numbers you can change them.

Those job numbers are probably accurate.

Within two miles of me are dozens of urban outdoorsmen working at picking up returnables, panhandling on street corners, and occasionally recycling catalytic converters.

All of them go uncounted.

All you whities, Goyim, who voted for that obozzo should be the happiest shit heads on the planet right now.

666 on chicago lottery the day after obozo got elected.
666 on manipulated bls numbers.

Fukushima will blow, you bitches. it's bad omen but you won't admit it. Take refuge for you and your family from the coming radiation. Of course if you're black, your skin will protect you.

Superstition makes you smart.

no but it's fun as hell.

How is this for smart? There are unexplainable phenomena, which logic failed to explain, for example, quantum entanglement for which time doesn't exist and information travel instantaneously. Experiments also showed that human beings are capable of predicting events a few seconds into the future that's statistically significant. P>.05 of randomness. Maybe, just maybe, future human beings dying from future Fukushima event are in quantum entanglement in present human beings and are sending us messages, but which we're too damn stupid to figure out. Anyhow, too many randomness indicated nonrandomness. Bet your ass Fukushima will blow. No chance of removing those damn rods, and that ain't no superstition.

I gave up on your logic when you claimed hell is fun.

Can he tell us the price of a Bitcoin one year from now?

So What - good name, keep it.

p<0.05 if it´s statistically significant by accepted convention. Less not more.

The whole idea that 60,000 house holds is a big enough statistical sample to be able to know what 300,000,000 people are doing is absurd.

If it's a correctly selected sample set with reasonable confidence bounds, it's not absurd.

When the sample set is one guy not-so-randomly writing down "employed," the statistics will be complete shit.

Stackers, just so you know - and do your due diligence if you don't trust me-

A properly conducted scientific statistical sample of as FEW as 2,200 likely voters (so, that would approximately equal 100,000,000 votes cast) can consistently & successfully predict the result within a margin of error of + or minus 2% to 3%.

In fact, this is the approximate sample pool size that all major polling entities (AP, Rasmussen, Real Clear Politics, ABC/CNN/Fox/Gallup, etc.) utilize when projecting the overall, national results commute POTUS election.

Anyone who has had a basic statistics course in college will understand this.

p.s. - It would not be the least bit shocking to me if the actual U3 rate in the U.S. was 18% to 20% and if the actual U6 rate in the U.S. was 25%+.

We're basically in 4 years of real economic contraction, propped up by record government debt creation, record consumer debt levels (household debt surpassed 3 trillion USD for first time in history last month), credit cards, SNAP/EBT, Social Security, Medicare, UE, extended UE, SSI, etc.

We're actually in a depression, that's masked by the aforementioned programs & things that didn't exist in 1933.

Anyone who has had a basic statistics course in college will understand this....and also should have learned that there are statistically about a billion ways to make statistics lie like crazy.
My personal fav is the not-so-random sample pool

Edit
.."We're actually in a depression"
Thank you! Damn. Someone finally said it.

A properly designed scientific sample methodology with properly constructed survey questions is designed to reduce noisy data & prevent manipulation of the results - hence the repeatable, consistent, reliable results, within the pre-set margin of error acknowledged by the construct.

p.s.- I almost forgot; FUCK YOU, BARRY RITHOLTZ

So why would illustrious leaders say we're in a recovery? Certainly those beyond reproach people wouldn't lie. If they lie about stuff how could they ever get elected to office?

Errr, do I need to start taking lessons in lying?(hopefully covered under H.A.M.P or H.A.R.P.) Have I been lied to all this time about that honesty and integrity stuff?

What if I like my honesty? Can I keep it?

I'm so confused.

"So why would illustrious leaders say we're in a recovery? Certainly those beyond reproach people wouldn't lie. If they lie about stuff how could they ever get elected to office?"

Just my hypothesis:

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2012/12/it-explains-alot-confidence-fai...

Shadowstats.com has government stats calculated the way they were originally - before all the 1980's games playing started.

REAL unemployment is worse than 1932 levels - approaching 25% - while 1932 peaked at 23+%.

REAL inflation is 2 1/2 time shigher than the 'official' number and CPI well below what's claimed.

Bush presided over a collapsing economy - a bubble losing air despite all the efforts made to keep it inflated. Obama inherited a mess but instead of being honest and telling the American public just how fucked we were, he simply kept playing the same old games, propping up the same banks and Wall Street while trying to pacify the masses with food stamps. Keep the bread and circuses going...... that's been the plan throughout history - until it no longer works.

Politicians learned their lesson with Carter - it's far easier to simlply LIE and say 'all is well' even when shit is hitting the fan and with the bought and paid for media we have now, nobody is going to call them on the BS. Democrats do it, Republicans do it. Our governing system is broken and instead of admitting that, our 'leaders' will lie - and continue to do so - until the whole mess collapses.

HAAAAAAAAAAAAA. Go take a statistics class please.

The whole idea that 60,000 house holds is a big enough statistical sample to be able to know what 300,000,000 people are doing is absurd.

Not necessarily, because they're not doing a straight extrapolation, but rather are coming up with numbers to throw into a complex computer model. Without realizing it you've hinted at a truth not discussed much.

With such a small sample size, <<0.1%, the "unemployment rate" from a straight extrapolation would be jumping all over the place from month to month, like maybe from 2% up to 20% one-sigma standard deviation. The fact that it moves so little month to month, "stickiness" at 7.8%, shows that there is a hell of a lot of "smoothing" going on and that 7.8% is the number they want to report. There's nothing wrong with doing data smoothing, but if people mistakenly confuse simulation with reality, well, that's just normal human stupidity.

They don't calculate the unemployment rate as #UNEMPLOYED/#WORKERS. They take the survey results and put them into a computer model that "massages" the data for seasonal adjustment, etc. But it's just GIGO and probably has been this way for as long as they've been doing it.

The only absurdity is that anyone at all is stupid enough to think the first-Friday "NFP print" has any more relevance to our economy than the price of tea in China. The fact that so many think it's important is the real absurdity.

I think the best quote from the Obama regime is Hillary's "What difference does it make?!?" That's a keeper, fer shure.

Quote: The only absurdity is that anyone at all is stupid enough to think the first-Friday "NFP print" has any more relevance to our economy than the price of tea in China. The fact that so many think it's important is the real absurdity.

I think the price of tea in China probably has more relevance to our economy that the "NFP print".

"It's gonna get worse before it gets better."

It's going to get better?

RAYCESSSSS!!!

His whole life is a fake. What difference does it make?

His minions are always trying to polish the Turd!

Otherwise known as NiggaNomics!

Don't drink and post. That you get ups is disgusting. What a pig pen this place is.

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Saturday, November 23, 2013

The report pre-election jobs October 2012 was rigged

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